News Today

'Scrap the season and give title to Inter'
ROME - INTER Milan coach Roberto Mancini has called for the Italian season to be abandoned and his team to be crowned Serie A champions. He said it was pointless to continue playing in front of empty stadiums. His side beat... [Read more]

SMEs with profits around $300,000 benefit most from tax cuts
WHEN all the business tax permutations are totted up, one specific group scores best - smaller firms with profits around $300,000 - although all firms benefit to various degrees. Cuts and exemptions listed in the Budget will deliver small and medium-sized... [Read more]

Philatelic museum will follow up on feedback
I REFER to the letter by Ms Chan Siew Hoong, 'Impressed by show of old S'pore postcards' (ST, Feb 14). We thank Ms Chan for her visit to the Singapore Philatelic Museum and for taking time to write in her suggestions.... [Read more]

SCCCI looks at club to cultivate bicultural Chinese S'poreans
IT MAY be 100 years old, but the Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCCI) is open to ideas as to how it can continue to remain relevant. And top government leaders have provided some suggestions in a book, entitled... [Read more]

Covered walkways and air-con make for softies
THERE are more covered walkways at LRT stations and schools are being built in Punggol. Are we making life too comfortable? Surely, some rain and sun won't hurt, especially for the students?A covered walkway is a small matter. But is it... [Read more]

Crisis talks in Italy after PM Prodi resigns
ROME - ITALIAN President Giorgio Napolitano has started crisis talks with political leaders following the shock resignation of Prime Minister Romano Prodi after just 10 months in office.The Prime Minister, whose fragile centre-left coalition narrowly won elections last April, tendered his... [Read more]

Mickelson's misses help Howell triumph
PACIFIC PALISADES (CALIFORNIA) - AFTER a week of basking in the hearty adulation and California sunshine, Phil Mickelson arrived at the Riviera Country Club's final hole on Sunday staring at a one-shot lead and trouble on the left. At stake was... [Read more]

Buyout moves hurt PacNet's net income
THE recent takeover battle for Pacific Internet (PacNet) has taken its toll on the firm's bottom line, driving profits down 47 per cent to US$3.8 million (S$5.8 million) for the year ended Dec 31. Net profits for the fourth quarter were... [Read more]

Drug-eluting stents - benefits outweigh the risks
THE first stent, a tiny metal scaffold used to hold the artery walls in position, was used in 1986 to prevent arteries from collapsing after they have been unblocked. But one in four patients with these bare-metal stents found their arteries... [Read more]

Fresh round of clashes in Gaza
GAZA CITY - FIGHTING between rival Palestinian forces erupted again yesterday in the Gaza Strip, where 23 people have been killed in the fiercest bout of internecine violence since Hamas won elections a year ago. Three Palestinians died overnight as militants... [Read more]

Parliament sitting
PARLIAMENT will sit on Monday, Feb 12, according to a statement from the Clerk of Parliament.... [Read more]

If history's anything to go by, market conditions could turn volatile

MARKET watchers with a long memory might well have felt a strong sense of deja vu as they watched the collapse of stock markets around the world recently.

The pattern of this global meltdown has, so far, followed the script of a similar painful correction that hit the local stock market in January 1994 - almost to a tee.

And if this 1994 parallel continues to hold true, investors will have to prepare themselves for much more volatile share prices this year, as compared to last year.

As most investors know all too well, the Straits Times Index (STI) slumped by almost 10 per cent in the space of just six trading sessions from Feb 27 to March 5, after hitting an all-time high of 3,310.44.

It then enjoyed an impressive 5.4 per cent rebound over the next four days, leading many market players to declare that the worst was over.

Now compare the events of 13 years ago.

Between Jan 4 and 13, 1994, the STI recorded an 11.2 per cent plunge, after reaching a then record high of 2,471.9 points - as foreign investors pulled out the copious amounts of cash they had poured into the stock market when SingTel was listed. It then recovered 5.4 per cent on Jan 14.

The market then suffered a series of smaller convulsions, followed by short-lived rebounds which failed to revive the great bull run which the market had enjoyed in 1993, the previous year.

Both the recent correction and that in 1994 were anticipated by nearly everyone. But few, either then or now, seemed prepared to accept the inevitable when it finally occurred.

In both instances, share prices had reached levels not justified by fundamentals.

In 1994, blame for the local stock market crash was pinned on former Malaysia finance minister Daim Zainuddin who reportedly said that he had sold all his shares because prices had reached dangerous levels.

This time, a 9 per cent plunge in the red-hot Shanghai stock market on Feb 27 was widely blamed for triggering a global catastrophe that wiped out over US$3.1 trillion (S$4.7 trillion) in the market value of stocks worldwide in just over a week.

So just as the Year of the Pig was looking as auspicious for investors as the Year of the Dog last year, stock prices were mercilessly slaughtered.

Still, coming after a prolonged seven month rally, this recent correction does not yet portend an inevitable slide into a dreaded bear market.

But if the parallels with the 1994 correction continue to hold true, then investors can expect far more volatile market conditions ahead.

There are a number of factors quite capable of giving global markets another nasty jolt. Traders, for instance, have been watching anxiously for any sign of the unwinding of the so-called global 'carry' trade.

This refers to massive loans taken by giant hedge funds in currencies of countries with low interest rates, such as the Japanese yen, to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

There are fears that a few of these large loans may sour and set off a global financial catastrophe.

That could happen if these funds are caught wrong-footed in a sudden sell-off in which a strengthening yen could turn these loans into crippling liabilities.

Traders who closely track the charts of share prices say that the painful corrections in share prices are likely to follow a 'two-wave' pattern.

After an initial selldown, there is a recovery, known in the trade as a 'dead cat bounce', which may be followed by a second or even third down-draft.

Similar patterns have been observed in major stock market crashes such as the Black Monday crash on Wall Street in 1987 and the Sept 11, 2001 plunge. More recently, it occurred again in May last year and then in June, as turmoil engulfed Asian financial markets.

Last year, so many stocks shot up so sharply that it seemed like a no-brainer to try and make a quick buck on the stock market. The past two weeks have shown that it is just as easy to lose money.

So. looking ahead, it is time to remember this wise market truism: It is best to trade only with money you can afford to lose.

Going by the 1994 script, the market mood may swing from ecstasy - seen as recently as the start of the year as the STI hit record highs - to disbelief as the market takes another grim fall.

There is another, less dramatic possibility. The market may go into a slumber, with daily volumes dropping sharply. Bullishness may give way to caution as despairing traders bail out altogether.

In a nutshell: Investors will simply have to get used to increased market volatility, after being spoilt by the rich gains they had enjoyed earlier as sheer momentum buying drove share prices higher.

And in order to keep their cool - and more importantly their capital and profit - they must have an action plan to cope with any unexpected gyrations in stock prices.

This plan should include a willingness to cut losses if the market goes into a free fall again. Traders should have a 'stop-loss' level - a price below which the pain caused by the depleting value of their investments becomes simply unbearable.

Investors who had despaired of not getting into the stock market last year as it soared to giddy heights may now find it easier to do so.

The best buying opportunities may present themselves when sentiment is at its bleakest. Of course that is a brave call for any investor to make. And they live in hope that pigs may fly.

engyeow@sph.com.sg





Investors must have an action plan to cope with any unexpected gyrations in stock prices. This plan should include a willingness to cut losses if the market goes into a free fall again.

News Today

CapitaLand earnings exceed $1b level
ANOTHER year, another record profit for property giant CapitaLand, which reported yesterday that full-year net earnings had jumped 35.6 per cent to $1.02 billion. The booming high-end residential market here helped power the company to its third record result in as... [Read more]

Wear chastity belts to prevent rape, says cleric
KUALA LUMPUR - WOMEN should wear chastity belts to prevent rape, incest and other sex crimes, a prominent Islamic cleric in northern Malaysia has been quoted as saying.Datuk Abu Hassan Din Al-Hafiz, speaking in the northern state of Terengganu on Thursday,... [Read more]

If you want to 'advertise' yourself in Friendster, be prepared to be scrutinised publicly
I wonder how many parents in Singapore are aware that their young children with friendster.com accounts are 'married' as claimed in their 'friendster' profiles.However, these are not real marriages. They declare themselves 'married' simply to mean they are 'in a relationship'... [Read more]

New taste of egg-vertising
TOKYO - WHAT came first: the chicken or the egg? In a new twist to the age-old conundrum, a Japanese firm is betting that - in shopping baskets at least - the chicken or rather chicken noodles will follow the egg... [Read more]

Why jail terms in Penal Code being amended
IN THE report, 'WP asks Govt to explain Penal Code amendments' (The Sunday Times, Feb 4), Ms Sylvia Lim asked why it was necessary to increase the maximum imprisonment terms by three or four times, citing the examples of the offences... [Read more]

Banking in money for charity
UNITED Overseas Bank (UOB) held a Chinese New Year gala dinner last night for its small and medium enterprise clients, and money was raised for charity.Mr Sim Kok Hwee, 29, a corporate development manager at industrial equipment maker Zicom Group was... [Read more]

Asia Quickly
RECOUNT FOR KAOHSIUNG BALLOTSTAIPEI: All the ballots cast in December's closely-fought mayoral election in the city of Kaohsiung will have to be recounted, a court spokesman said yesterday. In the Dec 9 election, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Chu defeated... [Read more]

Datacraft profits soar 47% to $9.5m
DATACRAFT Asia yesterday posted a 47 per cent jump in first-quarter gains to US$6.22 million (S$9.54 million), as its burgeoning services business boosted profit margins. The firm, which builds and maintains computer networks for banks, telecoms companies and technology firms, said... [Read more]

BA cabin crew call off strike after last-minute deal
LONDON - BRITISH Airways said yesterday it had reached agreement with a union representing cabin crew to call off a strike, but the deal came too late to avoid travel disruptions today and tomorrow.The Transport & General Workers (T&G) Union had... [Read more]

Money is not everything, Chelsea
HERE'S the bizarre thing about money. It brings hope, comfort and luxury. It also brings acrimony, jealousy and trouble.That came into sharp focus on Sunday, when Chelsea played Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup. Chelsea are the new money. Forest, European... [Read more]

Tax rebates for natural parents of illegitimate kids
THE natural parents of illegitimate children can now claim parenthood tax rebates applicable for the second, third and fourth child, if they marry before the child reaches six years of age. This change is to further promote the importance of an... [Read more]

StarHub investors to get $444m windfall

STARHUB investors can look forward to a cash windfall, after the telco announced yesterday that it will pay out $444 million in a capital reduction exercise.

A shareholder with 1,000 shares will receive $228.80, as the telco looks to cancel 8.3 per cent of its shares in circulation.

The move, which the company hinted at last month, follows its first capital reduction exercise last September when it paid out a total of $652 million.

The new exercise will involve StarHub cancelling one share for every 12 held by its investors. This will reduce the number of shares by 155.3 million.

For each share cancelled, the telco will pay $2.86 - the average closing price of the stock between Tuesday last week and Monday. The capital reduction will improve StarHub's return on equity from 23.7 per cent to 26.6 per cent, based on last year's figures.

StarHub added that its financial position should remain strong, with cash flows from operations expected to support its policy of paying out annual dividends of at least 14 cents per share.

'Considering StarHub's cash flow trends, cash operating requirements and investment needs, we have decided that a second capital reduction exercise is appropriate,' said chief executive Terry Clontz.

The exercise will be put to the vote at a shareholders' meeting on April 18. If all approvals are met, investors should receive their cash bonus by July.

BRYAN LEE

News Today

Security cameras for all MRT trains and stations
SECURITY cameras will be fitted on every train and at every MRT station to keep an eye out for terrorists on Singapore's transport network. These 'eyes' will also have a strong deterrent effect on other mischief makers out to rob or... [Read more]

Cuesports official on cheating charge
FORMER Cuesports Singapore secretary Richard Wee Kok Hiong has been charged with five counts of cheating.The 56-year-old allegedly forged claim forms for coaching services amounting to $2,100. There were two claims for $450, and three for $400. These claims involved training... [Read more]

Deal to end N. Korean nuclear crisis may be at hand
BEIJING - A CAUTIOUSLY optimistic US chief negotiator Christopher Hill said last night that a deal could be close that will see North Korea begin to end its nuclear weapons programme. Negotiators yesterday started going through a draft proposal outlining possible... [Read more]

Add another criterion to formula for GST rebate
I UNDERSTAND the formula to arrive at the final amount an individual gets in goods and services tax (GST) rebate is determined by two factors: His income; and The type of housing he lives in.I would like to address the second... [Read more]

Alan Leong qualifies for HK election
HONG KONG - PRO-DEMOCRACY politician Alan Leong formally qualified yesterday as Hong Kong's first opposition candidate to run for the territory's highest office, setting up a historic contest against incumbent Chief Executive Donald Tsang. Mr Leong, a Civic Party legislator and... [Read more]

Saying 'I love you' in Cats classified pays off
Every Valentine's Day, Ms Chew Li-May, 30, checks The Straits Times Cats Classified - and, sure enough, her husband's love dedication will be there. Married for five years, Ms Chew (with husband Alex Chai) said: 'I used to keep every single... [Read more]

Pyongyang nuke deal 'template for Teheran'
WASHINGTON - THE US reached a deal with North Korea with its sights set on a bigger problem: Iran. It held up as a model for Teheran the six-party agreement where Pyongyang will take steps towards giving up nuclear weapons. White... [Read more]

Strong bids amid rising office values
A COMMERCIAL site at the junction of New Bridge Road and North Canal Road drew a bullish 11 bids when its tender closed yesterday.The highest bid was submitted by Kim Eng Properties, the real estate arm of Kim Eng Ong Asia,... [Read more]

Philippines' growth impresses President Nathan
MANILA - PRESIDENT SR Nathan is impressed by the economic development in the Philippines, and hopes Singaporeans will seize the new opportunities by interacting directly with Filipinos and their leaders. 'I've been impressed by the changes I've seen - highways, a... [Read more]

Soccer Shorts
CHELSEA NEED MOURINHO, SAYS LAMPARDLONDON: Chelsea midfielder Frank Lampard admits it is difficult to think about life without manager Jose Mourinho at Stamford Bridge. There have been suggestions that Mourinho will quit at the end of the season after falling out... [Read more]

Review of 12 health-sector charities out
THE report card on 12 of Singapore's largest charities in the health sector is out - and while there are no shocking revelations, three key areas have been identified for them to work on. They have a six-month deadline to fix... [Read more]

News Today

Clinic keeps baby over unpaid bill
JAKARTA - AN INDONESIAN clinic is keeping a baby until his poor parents pay the bill for his delivery, a report said yesterday. Pedicab driver Sutrisno, 33, paid 1.3 million rupiah (S$220) to the Murni Asih clinic in Bojong Nangka near... [Read more]

Autocratic democracy: A pragmatic view
I refer to the article, 'Autocratic democracy worked, but will it continue to work?' (Online forum, Feb 2) by Adrienne Ng Qian Wen. I would like to take a pragmatic view.In an economic system that is small and where information is... [Read more]

Merkel welcomes new balance of power
DAVOS - EMERGING economies such as China and India are bringing about a power shift that offers more opportunities than threats. That was German Chancellor Angela Merkel's assessment, as she opened the high-profile World Economic Forum here on Wednesday. But even... [Read more]

Let?s have a dream match between the New and the Old Lions at Kallang Stadium before it gets torn down
Last Wednesday, nearly 55,000 fans witnessed what seemed like the last competitive match at the Kallang National Stadium between Singapore and Thailand in the first leg of the Asean Football Championship final. The match was highly controversial and was marred by... [Read more]

Real defenders speak up for Becks, Ronaldo
MADRID - REAL Madrid defenders Ivan Helguera and Michel Salgado leapt to the defence of out-of-favour teammates David Beckham and Ronaldo on Wednesday. 'Ronaldo's one of the best in the world, if not the best. I don't think it's fair, the... [Read more]

Witness hits back as defence targets his testimony
DEFENCE lawyers for the three former board members of the National Kidney Foundation took turns yesterday to pick apart the testimony of the new NKF board's witness, Mr Bobby Nair. But Mr Nair, the former senior deputy director of communications, held... [Read more]

Minister's tumour detected on TV
A GRATEFUL Irish politician has publicly thanked an eagle-eyed doctor, who upon seeing the lawmaker on a television programme, diagnosed a tumour on the man's jaw.Overseas Development Minister Conor Lenihan said on Wednesday that the surgeon, who he did not name,... [Read more]

Tonight's News Headlines
3 reasons to support LionsCOME to the National Stadium to back the national team against Malaysia tonight.Football Association of Singapore president Ho Peng Kee gave three reasons why: This is the real thing - they are cheering for Singapore, their country,... [Read more]

Unusual route to O levels pays off
MOST students take four or five years to sit for the O levels, but Beatty Secondary student David Hoe, 18, took six. That is because David wants to realise his dream of becoming a university graduate teacher. So determined was he... [Read more]

Isetan burglary: 3 charged
THREE youths - including one who applied for bail so that he could collect his O-level results - were yesterday charged with housebreaking and theft of goods worth a total of $9,616. Ethan Khoo Ee Ren and Yuen Wei Jie, both... [Read more]

HDB likely to modify system of flat sales
THE Housing Board (HDB) is likely to modify the way it offers its flats for sale, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan told reporters yesterday. This is not just because of the fiasco at last week's Walk-In Selection (WIS) - when... [Read more]

News Today

Name changes 'could bring disaster'
TAIPEI - FORMER Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui has warned that the island's drive to remove references of rival China from the names of state-run companies could bring disaster. Under the campaign pushed by the current president, Mr Chen Shui-bian, four state-run... [Read more]

Sports world
FANDI OFF TO WINNING STARTPURWAKARTA (Indonesia): Former Singapore soccer star Fandi Ahmad started his coaching career here on a high note. His Pelita Jaya Purwakarta side defeated Persikabo Bogor 1-0 on Sunday. A delighted Fandi told PA Sport: 'With this opportunity,... [Read more]

A treat for destitute
PHOTO: ASHLEIGH SIMThe destitute from the Angsana Home at Pelangi Village, run by the Thye Hua Kwan Moral Society, were treated to a 10-course Chinese New Year lunch at the Yangqing Shanghai Kitchen at Chijmes on Tuesday.The event was organised by... [Read more]

Pregnant China women fill up HK quota
HONG KONG - SOME Hong Kong hospitals have exhausted their 2007 quota for admission of expectant mothers from China as new measures to stem an influx of mainland women giving birth here loom.The new policy, effective from Feb 1, will bar... [Read more]

Yes, give to needy but 0.5% is way too little
I SUPPORT wholeheartedly Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong's call to the wealthy to give 0.5 per cent of their annual pay to the needy (ST, Feb 3).In fact, I think 0.5 per cent is way too little. After all, what is... [Read more]

President Nathan: Build cultural, social ties
MANILA - SINGAPOREANS should not only seize investment opportunities in the Philippines, but also embrace social projects and cultural exchanges here, President SR Nathan said yesterday. In an assessment of his four-day state visit, he said his meeting with Philippine President... [Read more]

'Hard to say goodbye to Harry Potter'
BRITISH author J.K. Rowling has said she is both heartbroken and euphoric about wrapping up the final book in the Harry Potter series. But she gave no clues about the boy wizard's fate. On her website, she sidestepped speculation that he... [Read more]

Manufacturing attracts record $9b investments
KUALA LUMPUR - MALAYSIA drew a record RM20.2 billion (S$9 billion) in foreign investments in its manufacturing sector last year, but is facing more competition for funds. All in, 1,077 manufacturing projects worth RM46 billion were approved last year, far exceeding... [Read more]

Companies in brief
COURTS SUFFERS $2.4M LOSS RETAILER Courts (Singapore) incurred a $2.4 million loss in the third quarter ended Dec 31, bringing its loss for the year to date to $5.6 million. Courts issued a profit warning last month, saying it expected losses... [Read more]

Where on earth are you? Ask your shoe
MIAMI - MR ISAAC Daniel calls the tiny Global Positioning System chip he has embedded into a line of athletic shoes 'peace of mind'. He wishes his eight-year-old son had been wearing them when he got a call from his school... [Read more]

Industry snapshot
ENVIRONMENT ENGINEERING SERVICES INDUSTRYEmployment: About 43,000 people in 2003Sectors: Industry covers environmental services, process control and instrumentation, and engineering services.Value-add: This industry's value-add contribution is high at $2.5 billion. Value-add is the value created by a company through its production process... [Read more]